关键词: 林芝云杉, 种群结构, 静态生命表, 生存分析, 时间序列预测, 藏东南

Abstract: Picea likiangensis var.linzhiensis is a special species in Tibet,and it is in a easily endangered state in our country.After a comprehensive investigation on P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population distributed in Gongbu nature reserve of southeast Tibet by transects and quadrats,population structure and quantitative dynamics were analyzed in the paper.The results showed that the individual number of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis gradually diminished with structure level (the diameter class,height class and crown width class),and the number in three structures was presented as the typical pyramid shape.The seedlings of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis were more abundant,the natural regeneration ability was powerful,and the population was at a stable development state.The survival number of the different diameter class of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population showed a logarithmic relationship with diameter class,and the number of the different height and crown width class power function relationship with height and crown width class respectively.There was a linear relation between diameter and height,but there was not obviously correlation between diameter and crown width,such was height and crown width.Individual survival quantity of very age class of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population was obviously different in growth process.The mortality and killing rates were greatly fluctuant with diameter class,those of age Ⅵ were lowest(20% and 22.31% respectively),those of age Ⅹ were highest (62.96% and 99.33% respectively),the average mortality and killing rates accounted for 41.03% and 57.55% respectively.The survival curve of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population approached to the B₃ subtype of Deevey-Ⅱ. Four survival curves for P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population indicated that the population would have an early reduction,a mid-term stability,and a late recession because of physiological exhaustion.The time sequence model predicted that the amount of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population would have a different rising tendency in the upcoming Ⅱ,Ⅴ,Ⅷ and Ⅵ age classes,the population had better recovery capability and kept stability maintenance.The research results provided a theoretical basis for management and sustainable utilization of P.likiangensis var.linzhiensis population,and enriched the assessment content of the national ecological security barrier in Tibet plateau.

Key words: Picea likiangensis var.linzhiensis, population structure, static life table, survival analysis, time sequence prediction, Southeast Tibet