基于直觉模糊集TOPSIS决策方法的森林防火勤务方案综合评价

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2017.03.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以不同森林火险状态下的防火勤务方案为研究对象,从人员、机具、后勤保障、灭火能力4个方面入手,基于直觉模糊集和TOPSIS决策方法,提出了防火勤务方案综合评价方法。首先,建立森林防火勤务方案评价指标体系,利用层次分析法和德尔菲法计算出指标权重。随后构建直觉模糊评价矩阵,确立正负理想解并计算备选方案到正负理想解的距离,计算综合评价指数,得到各防火勤务方案有效性的优劣排序。最后以内蒙古呼伦贝尔市巴日图林场进行了实例验证。

关键词: 森林防火勤务, 直觉模糊集, TOPSIS决策方法, 德尔菲法, 层次分析法

Abstract:

In this paper,the fire prevention service scheme of different forest fire conditions was taken as the research object. From the four aspects of the personnel,the equipment,the logistical support and the fire fighting ability and by using the intuitionistic fuzzy sets and the TOPSIS method,firstly the evaluation index system of forest fire prevention service scheme is established. Secondly,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and Delphi method are used to calculate the weight of the index,then the intuitionistic fuzzy evaluation matrix constructed,the positive and negative ideal solutions established and the distance of the alternatives to the positive and negative ideal solutions calculated. Finally,the comprehensive evaluation indexes are calculated,and the ranking of the fire service program effectiveness obtained. The Baritu Forest Farm at Hulunbeir of Inner Mongolia has been taken as an example for verification.

Key words: the forest fire prevention service, the intuitionistic fuzzy sets, the TOPSIS method, Delphi method, the analytic hierarchy process

中图分类号:

S762

刘少海, 赵天忠, 李塞波. 基于直觉模糊集TOPSIS决策方法的森林防火勤务方案综合评价[J]. 林业资源管理, 2017,(3): 62-68.

LIU Shaohai, ZHAO Tianzhong, LI Saibo. Application of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets in Evaluating the Forest Fire Prevention Service with TOPSIS Method[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2017,(3): 62-68.

图/表 6

表1

表2

表3

各方案评分结果

评价指标	P₁	P₂	P₃	P₄	P₅	P₆
$U 1 1$	(0.82,0.02,0.16)	(0.78,0.04,0.18)	(0.22,0.32,0.46)	(0.66,0.06,0.28)	(0.66,0.06,0.28)	(0.84,0.04,0.12)
$U 1 2$	(0.8,0.06,0.14)	(0.88,0.04,0.08)	(0.76,0.04,0.2)	(0.86,0.02,0.12)	(0.88,0.02,0.1)	(0.8,0.04,0.16)
$U 1 3$	(0.68,0.08,0.24)	(0.78,0.06,0.16)	(0.36,0.18,0.46)	(0.58,0.1,0.32)	(0.3,0.24,0.46)	(0.84,0.02,0.14)
$U 1 4$	(0.6,0.06,0.34)	(0.76,0.06,0.18)	(0.3,0.24,0.46)	(0.8,0.1,0.1)	(0.68,0.06,0.26)	(0.06,0.66,0.28)
U₂₁	(0.7,0.12,0.18)	(0.8,0.02,0.18)	(0.18,0.2,0.62)	(0.82,0.08,0.1)	(0.06,0.72,0.22)	(0.02,0.82,0.16)
$U 2 2$	(0.62,0.12,0.26)	(0.74,0.02,0.24)	(0.16,0.68,0.16)	(0.86,0.06,0.08)	(0.12,0.66,0.22)	(0,0.76,0.24)
$U 2 3$	(0.32,0.24,0.44)	(0.7,0.02,0.28)	(0.24,0.58,0.18)	(0.8,0.04,0.16)	(0.78,0.06,0.16)	(0.2,0.26,0.54)
U₂₄	(0.62,0.06,0.32)	(0.76,0.04,0.2)	(0.8,0.02,0.18)	(0.02,0.86,0.12)	(0.86,0.02,0.12)	(0.86,0,0.14)
$U 3 1$	(0.16,0.22,0.62)	(0.74,0.04,0.22)	(0.7,0.02,0.28)	(0.72,0.08,0.2)	(0.74,0.06,0.2)	(0.3,0.16,0.54)
$U 3 2$	(0.66,0.06,0.28)	(0.78,0.06,0.16)	(0.74,0.04,0.22)	(0.82,0.02,0.16)	(0.64,0.1,0.26)	(0.84,0.06,0.1)
$U 3 3$	(0.08,0.84,0.08)	(0.02,0.74,0.24)	(0.78,0.08,0.14)	(0.02,0.88,0.1)	(0.76,0.06,0.18)	(0.08,0.74,0.18)
$U 3 4$	(0.82,0.06,0.12)	(0.72,0.1,0.18)	(0.32,0.3,0.38)	(0.68,0.1,0.22)	(0.68,0.04,0.28)	(0.76,0.08,0.16)
$U 4 1$	(0.74,0.02,0.24)	(0.88,0.04,0.08)	(0.7,0.04,0.26)	(0.68,0.04,0.28)	(0.74,0.02,0.24)	(0.94,0.02,0.04)
$U 4 2$	(0.72,0.06,0.22)	(0.84,0.02,0.14)	(0.8,0.06,0.14)	(0.02,0.78,0.2)	(0.48,0.12,0.4)	(0,0.74,0.26)
$U 4 3$	(0.82,0.02,0.16)	(0.88,0,0.12)	(0.62,0.1,0.28)	(0.04,0.72,0.24)	(0.8,0.08,0.12)	(0.88,0.02,0.1)
$U 4 4$	(0.28,0.16,0.56)	(0.9,0.02,0.08)	(0.18,0.58,0.24)	(0.94,0.02,0.04)	(0.12,0.72,0.16)	(0.04,0.8,0.16)

表3

表4

五级火险下防火执勤评价指标的正负理想方案解

理想解	$U 1 1$	$U 1 2$	$U 1 3$	$U 1 4$
P⁺	(0.84,0.02,0.14)	(0.88,0.02,0.1)	(0.84,0.02,0.14)	(0.8,0.06,0.14)
P^-	(0.22,0.32,0.46)	(0.76,0.04,0.2)	(0.3,0.24,0.46)	(0.06,0.66,0.28)
理想解	U₂₁	U₂₂	U₂₃	U₂₄
P⁺	(0.82,0.02,0.16)	(0.86,0.02,0.12)	(0.8,0.02,0.18)	(0.86,0,0.14)
P^-	(0.02,0.82,0.16)	(0,0.76,0.24)	(0.2,0.58,0.22)	(0.02,0.86,0.12)
理想解	U₃₁	U₃₂	U₃₃	U₃₄
P⁺	(0.74,0.02,0.24)	(0.84,0.02,0.14)	(0.78,0.08,0.14)	(0.82,0.04,0.14)
P^-	(0.16,0.22,0.62)	(0.64,0.1,0.26)	(0.02,0.88,0.1)	(0.32,0.3,0.38)
理想解	U₄₁	U₄₂	U₄₃	U₄₄
P⁺	(0.94,0.02,0.04)	(0.84,0.02,0.14)	(0.88,0,0.12)	(0.94,0.02,0.04)
P^-	(0.68,0.04,0.28)	(0,0.78,0.22)	(0.04,0.72,0.24)	(0.04,0.8,0.16)

表4

表5

各勤务方案到理想解的距离及其综合评价指数

方案	$D i +$	$D i -$	C_i
P₁	0.057178	0.097793	0.631041
P₂	0.030202	0.113224	0.789427
P₃	0.075181	0.078816	0.511801
P₄	0.086904	0.080767	0.48170
P₅	0.066973	0.088127	0.568196
P₆	0.086608	0.083689	0.491429

表5

表6

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U₁	U₁₁	U₁₂	U₁₃		U₁₄	Wi
U₁₁	1	3	4		4	0.5417
U₁₂	1/3	1	2		1	0.1833
U₁₃	1/4	1/2	1		1/2	0.1028
U₁₄	1/4	1	2		1	0.1722
λ_max=4.0458				CR=0.0172<0.1

准则层	指标层	权重
人员数质量U₁	人员数量U₁₁	0.1414
	战勤训练水平U₁₂	0.0478
	士气情况U₁₃	0.0268
	指挥决心U₁₄	0.0449
机具效能U₂	机具种类U₂₁	0.0179
	灭火杀伤效能U₂₂	0.0478
	战备完好性U₂₃	0.0276
	防火安全性U₂₄	0.0756
后勤保障U₃	生活保障U₃₁	0.0146
	通信效能U₃₂	0.0270
	人力物力损耗U₃₃	0.0504
	运输能力U₃₄	0.0270
火源扑救能力U₄	目标分配质量U₄₁	0.0644
	预测着火点意图U₄₂	0.0535
	人为因素干扰U₄₃	0.1808
	可燃物干扰U₄₄	0.1525

森林火险等级	防火勤务有效性优劣排序
一级	P₆>P₄>P₃>P₅>P₁>P₂
二级	P₄>P₆>P₃>P₅>P₁>P₂
三级	P₃>P₆>P₄>P₅>P₁>P₂
四级	P₁>P₂>P₅>P₃>P₆>P₄
五级	P₂>P₁>P₅>P₃>P₆>P₄