基于犹豫模糊语言的森林火灾发生风险评估

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2020.01.024

林业资源管理 ›› 2020›› Issue (1): 183-190.doi: 10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2020.01.024

基于犹豫模糊语言的森林火灾发生风险评估

骆相宇, 李宗敏()

四川大学商学院,成都 610041

收稿日期:2019-11-18 修回日期:2019-12-17 出版日期:2020-02-28 发布日期:2020-05-18
通讯作者: 李宗敏
作者简介:骆相宇(1998-),女,四川成都人,学士,从事多属性决策工作。Email: xiangyu_l2019@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71601134)

Risk Assessment of Forest Fire Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic

Xiangyu LUO, Zongmin LI()

Business School,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041

Received:2019-11-18 Revised:2019-12-17 Online:2020-02-28 Published:2020-05-18
Contact: Zongmin LI

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

森林火灾具有分布广、频率高、不确定性强的特点,对森林火灾发生风险进行评估可以为有效防治森林火灾发生、降低损失提供参考。从气象、地形、可燃物3个维度构建森林火灾发生风险的评价指标体系,首次引入犹豫模糊语言描述,提高专家语言评价表达的灵活性。通过犹豫模糊语言混合加权集结算子对语言信息进行集结,得到某区域火灾发生风险的可能性。该方法被应用到大兴安岭森林某片过火地区,对该地区森林火灾发生风险进行评估,证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 森林火灾风险, 犹豫模糊语言, 犹豫模糊语言混合加权算子

Abstract:

Forest fires have the characteristics of wide distribution,high frequency and strong uncertainty.The assessment of forest fire risk can provide references for effective prevention and control of forest fires and reduction of losses.The evaluation index system of forest fire risk is constructed from three dimensions of meteorology,terrain and combustibles.It is the first time to introduce hesitant fuzzy linguistic description,which improves the flexibility of expert language evaluation expression.Through the hesitant fuzzy linguistic hybrid weighed aggregation operator,to aggregate the linguistic information,then get the probability of fire risk in a certain area.This method has been applied to an over fire area of Daxinganling forest to assess the risk of forest fire in this area,and this case proves the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

Key words: forest fire risk, hesitant fuzzy linguistic, hesitant fuzzy linguistic hybrid weighted aggregation operators

中图分类号:

S726

骆相宇, 李宗敏. 基于犹豫模糊语言的森林火灾发生风险评估[J]. 林业资源管理, 2020,(1): 183-190.

Xiangyu LUO, Zongmin LI. Risk Assessment of Forest Fire Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2020,(1): 183-190.

图/表 2

参考文献 38

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目标层	子系统层c_i	指标层c_ij
森林火灾发生风险	c₁地形因子	c₁₁ 海拔
		c₁₂ 坡向
		c₁₃ 坡度
		c₁₄坡位
		c₁₄坡位	c₂气象因子	c₂₁ 气温
	c₂₂ 相对湿度
	c₂₃ 降水因子
	c₂₄ 风力
	c₃可燃物因子	c₃₁ 植被种类
		c₃₂ 主要植被树龄
		c₃₃ 植被郁闭度

指标c_i_,_j	评价值s_i_,_j	指标c_i_,_j	评价值s_i_,_j	指标c_i_,_j	评价值s_i_,_j
c_1,1	s₂,s₃,s₄	c_2,1	s₅,s₆,s₇	c_3,1	s₆,s₇
c_1,2	s₅,s₆,s₇	c_2,2	s₆,s₇	c_3,2	s₃,s₄,s₅,s₆
c_1,3	s₄,s₅,s₆	c_2,3	s₅,s₆,s₇	c_3,3	s₅,s₆,s₇
c_1,4	s₄,s₅,s₆,s₇	c_2,4	s₄,s₅,s₆,s₇	-	-

基于犹豫模糊语言的森林火灾发生风险评估

Risk Assessment of Forest Fire Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic

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