珍稀植物篦子三尖杉潜在分布范围及气候变化影响预测

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2022.01.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

篦子三尖杉(Cephalotaxus oliveri)是第三纪孑遗植物,国家二级重点保护植物。在全球气候变化背景下,了解篦子三尖杉分布范围及其对气候变化的响应有助于该物种的保护。利用文献和标本库分布记录数据,通过MaxEnt模型分析篦子三尖杉在我国的地理分布,并基于国家气候中心提供的CMIP6气候数据预测4种气候变化情景下篦子三尖杉未来80年的分布范围。结果表明:1)最干燥月份降水量、坡度和年降水量是影响篦子三尖杉分布的主要气候因子;2)篦子三尖杉高适宜生境(适宜生境以下简称适生区)面积占我国国土面积的1.7%,主要集中在四川盆地西南边缘山地、武陵山系—神农架、雪峰山、南岭、罗霄山、大别山、皖南山地—天目山、武夷山—浙南山地、戴云山和台湾中央山脉;但篦子三尖杉西南部种群(位于云南省)不处于模型预测的高适生范围内,这可能与当地明确位置的点位相对较少和微生境有关;3)总体上来看,篦子三尖杉的分布格局对未来气候暖湿化的响应不太敏感,在未来4种气候变化情景下,篦子三尖杉高适生区的空间分布没有显著变化,而篦子三尖杉低、中、高3个等级的适生区面积和适生区总面积普遍扩大,对于极高适生区面积,除了在SSP245的情景下极高适生区面积将持续下降外,其余情景极高适生区面积变化较小。

关键词: 篦子三尖杉, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 潜在分布

Abstract:

Cephalotaxus oliveri is an II-class national protection of wild plant and a tertiary relic species in China. Understanding its distribution range and its response to climatic factors is helpful to protect the species under climate change. In this study,geographical distribution records from literature and specimen was used to analyze the potential geographical distribution of C.oliveri in China through MaxEnt model. Moreover,based on CMIP6 date from Digital Terrain of China,C. oliveri potential distribution under four climate change scenarios in the following 80 yearswas predicted. The results showed that:1) precipitation in the driest month,slope and annual precipitation were the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C.oliveri. 2)Under the current climate conditions,highly suitable habitat for C. oliveri accounted for 1.7% of the area of China,mainly concentrated in the southwest edge of the Sichuan Basin,Wuling Mountains - Shennongjia,Xuefeng Mountain,Nanling,Luoxiao Mountain,Dabie Mountain,mountains in Southern Anhui - Tianmu Mountain,Wuyi Mountain - mountains in Southern Zhejiang,Daiyun Mountain and Central Mountains in Taiwan. However,under current climatic conditions,the southwest population (located in Yunnan Province) was not in the range of highly suitable habitat,which may be related to the relatively few definite distribution points and microhabitat effects in the local.3)Overall,the response of C.oliveri distribution to future climate (warm and humid) would be insensitive. Under the four scenarios of climate change,the model predicted that the spatial distribution of highly suitable habitat of the species would not change significantly. The area of low,medium,highly suitable habitat and all degree of suitable habitat would generally increase. The most highly suitable habitat of the species would slightly change under future climate except the SSP245 scenario,which would decrease continually.

Key words: Cephalotaxus oliveri, climate change, maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), potential geographical distribution

中图分类号:

Q948

刘增力, 胡理乐. 珍稀植物篦子三尖杉潜在分布范围及气候变化影响预测[J]. 林业资源管理, 2022,(1): 35-42.

LIU Zengli, HU Lile. Prediction of Potential Distribution and Climate Change of Rare Species Cephalotaxus oliveri[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2022,(1): 35-42.

图/表 5

表1

本研究选取的62个篦子三尖杉的分布位点及其经纬坐标

分布点	纬度(N)/(°)	经度(E)/(°)
广东省惠州市江北区东江公园	23.103337	114.41047
广东省乐昌市九峰	25.225694	113.20207
广东省乐昌市两江镇至白石镇途中	25.472236	113.299358
广东省仁化县长江区潭洞^[10]	25.415716	113.966169
广东省深圳市罗湖区深圳植物园	22.575976	114.17379
广东省阳山县南岭国家级自然保护区	24.911185	113.235718
广西壮族自治区鹿寨县广亭山	24.324167	109.509645
广西壮族自治区新坪镇黄竹村深泥田屯	24.430022	110.645403
贵州省道真县三元村^[13,14]	29.031324	107.383866
贵州省江口县梵净山万宝岩^[13,14]	27.910587	108.694428
贵州省雷山县雷公山国家级自然保护区	26.279083	108.191945
贵州省荔波县茂兰国家级自然保护区	25.372439	113.12194
贵州省湄潭县陈家沟	28.092084	107.448064
贵州省台江县南宫自然保护区^[13,14]	26.579177	108.388535
贵州省望谟县水井湾	25.362658	106.279669
贵州省务川县红丝乡上坝村两红口	28.757525	108.134623
贵州省修文县六桶镇凤咀^[9]	27.110328	106.483969
贵州省镇远县猫石岩	27.3	108.347
湖北省恩施清平镇	29.811914	108.991515
湖北省恩施市太阳河乡怡园	30.294483	109.462226
湖北省十堰市武当山国家风景区	32.682644	111.215556
湖北省五峰县后河国家级自然保护区	30.218418	110.857651
湖北省武汉市东西湖区金银湖	30.65756	114.197604
湖北省兴山县寒溪山	31.323755	110.777728
湖北省宜昌市夷陵区泥巴湾	30.960888	111.253414
湖南省东安县蒋家村	26.375924	111.303572
湖南省东安县舜皇山	26.398245	111.087201
湖南省古丈县上热加达	28.588	109.834794
湖南省衡阳市南岳区广济寺^[12]	27.298858	112.707552
湖南省花垣县古苗河	28.569159	109.499667
湖南省吉首市矮寨镇德夯村	28.352836	109.585444
湖南省龙山县土地垭	29.560476	109.53262
湖南省龙山县湾塘	29.32019	109.397433
湖南省桑植县八大公山国家级自然保护区	29.750725	109.987051
湖南省桑植县天平山	29.797161	110.075849
湖南省石门县泉坪	30.016235	110.544168
湖南省宜章县莽山自然保护区天台山	24.974551	112.965513
湖南省宜章县西乡水	25.45209	112.920753
湖南省永顺县杉木河林场	29.183352	109.834106
湖南省沅陵县上怡溪	28.506311	110.46714
湖南省沅陵县筒车坪	28.871237	110.494798
湖南省张家界市永定区土家风情园	29.127191	110.458949
湖南省芷江县大树坳乡竹坡村	27.515308	109.494325
江西省安福县陈山^[16]	27.230883	114.1901
江西省崇义县阳岭护林饭庄至茅坪村^[16]	25.608768	114.319472
江西省大余县吉村^[16]	25.441967	114.1696
江西省遂川县五斗江^[16]	26.50305	114.300083
江西省修水县何市镇郭城村熊家梅山冲^[16]	28.797554	114.652609
四川省都江堰市四川农业大学校区	31.006139	103.617696
四川省峨眉山市石泉沟	29.489524	103.365653
云南省麻栗坡县碑房大包	23.186324	104.768154
云南省屏边县白河镇^[14]	22.935632	103.832431
云南省新平县者竜乡岩子脚^[8,11]	23.869099	101.31613
重庆市北碚区缙云山	29.889737	106.531628
重庆市梁平区屏锦镇竹海	30.612502	107.516363
重庆市梁平区竹山镇正道村	30.72743	107.550842
重庆市南川区金佛山大河坝	29.062548	107.208753
重庆市南川区金佛山三泉八道水	29.115577	107.215935
重庆市南川区南平镇三江红河沟	28.973319	106.718271
重庆市巫山县当阳乡	31.417582	110.003953
重庆市武隆区白马山林场	29.330969	107.613225
重庆市武隆区长坝	29.340935	107.471862

表1

图1

图2

表2

图3

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	高适生区	极高适生区
面积/km²	159532.6	7080.3
位置	四川盆地西南缘山地、渝黔交界山地至武陵山系—神农架、桂西北—黔东南石灰岩山地、雪峰山—南岭、罗霄山脉—南岭、大别山区、皖南山地—天目山、武夷山—浙南山地、戴云山脉和台湾中央山脉	武陵山系、雪峰山、越城岭、九岭山脉和中央山脉东南隅