关键词: CO₂排放, 能源消耗, 森林碳汇, 碳达峰, 碳中和

Abstract:

At the level of realistic economy and technology,we must first achieve carbon peaking in order to achieve carbon neutrality.Studying the carbon peak foundation and carbon sink capacity of the major carbon emitting countries in the world has important reference significance for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This study sorted out the top 24 countries in economic aggregate among the world's 224 countries and regions.Based on the data of CO₂ emissions,total GDP,energy consumption and reserves on forest carbon sink from 1960 to 2018,it found out total GDP and GDP per capita were positively correlated with CO₂ emissions before carbon peak.When GDP per capita reached $\$$20000 to $\$$35000,and low-carbon energy accounted for more than 35%,it would be possible to achieve carbon peak and reduce carbon emissions.In addition,when GDP per capita reached $\$$35000 to $\$$45000,and high-carbon energy (coal and oil) accounted for no more than 55%,it would also be possible to achieve carbon peak and reduce carbon emissions.Energy supply structure was the first determinant of carbon peak time.The results showed that if the proportion of low-carbon energy was higher,it was easier to achieve carbon peak.Nowadays,the forest carbon sink capacity of 24 countries was constantly improving.However,the reserves on forest carbon sink were less than 15% of the country's annual carbon emissions in most countries.It still takes a long time to achieve carbon neutrality.Therefore,special attention should be paid to the healthy,stable,efficient and sustainable management of forest ecosystems.

Key words: CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, forest carbon sink, carbon peak, carbon neutrality