灰色系统理论对我国“十一五”期间征占用林地数量预测分析

林业资源管理 ›› 2008›› Issue (2): 75-77.

灰色系统理论对我国“十一五”期间征占用林地数量预测分析

智长贵¹, 徐济德², 钟华友²

1.国家林业局调查规划设计院,北京 100714;
2.国家林业局森林资源管理司,北京 100714

收稿日期:2008-01-18 修回日期:2008-03-12 出版日期:2008-04-28 发布日期:2020-11-30
作者简介:智长贵(1973-),男,河南商水人,博士,主要从事森林资源监测和森林资源遥感信息提取研究。

Prediction and Analysis of Requisitioned and Occupied Forest Land during China’s“11th Five-Year Plan”Period Using Grey System Theory

ZHI Changgui¹, XU Jide², ZHONG Huayou²

1. Academy of Forestry Inventory and Planning,SFA,Beijing 100714,China;
2. Department of Forest Resources Management,SFA,Beijing 100714,China

Received:2008-01-18 Revised:2008-03-12 Online:2008-04-28 Published:2020-11-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以我国“十五”期间征占用林地数量为基础,运用灰色系统预测模型对我国“十一五”期间征占用林地趋势进行预测,并对模型精度进行了分析和检验。建立的GM(1,1)模型经精度检验(C=0.50,P=1.00)判为合格,预测的“十一五”期间林地征占用数据,可作为编制我国“十一五”期间林地定额的参考依据。

关键词: 灰色系统, GM(1,1)模型, 林地定额

Abstract: Based on the area of requisitioned and occupied forest land during China's“10th Five-Year Plan”period,a grey forecasting model of GM(1,1)was used to forecast the trend of requisitioned and occupied woodland during China's“11th Five-Year Plan”period,and the model precision was analyzed.The results showed that GM(1,1)model was effective(C = 0.50 P = 1.00).The predictive value can be used as one of the references for woodland ration during China's“11th Five-Year Plan”period.

Key words: grey system theory, GM(1,1)model, woodland ration

中图分类号:

S711
N941.5

智长贵, 徐济德, 钟华友. 灰色系统理论对我国“十一五”期间征占用林地数量预测分析[J]. 林业资源管理, 2008,(2): 75-77.

ZHI Changgui, XU Jide, ZHONG Huayou. Prediction and Analysis of Requisitioned and Occupied Forest Land during China’s“11th Five-Year Plan”Period Using Grey System Theory[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2008,(2): 75-77.