2005—2020年江西省森林碳储量时空变化趋势及影响因素

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lczyyj.2024.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

森林生态系统对减缓和适应气候变化方面具有重要作用,全面了解森林碳储量的时空变化趋势,对于维持区域碳平衡、预测森林碳储量潜力、调整保护管理措施至关重要。基于森林碳储量(FCS)、土地利用覆盖变化(LUCC)、数字高程模型(DEM)等3个遥感数据集,采用Mann-Kendall检验、相关性分析方法,分析2005—2020年江西省森林碳储量的时空变化趋势及其对土地利用变化的响应。结果表明:1)江西省森林碳储量呈向上波动趋势,年均增长率为12.59%,最小值出现在2009年,为5.3×10⁸tC;最大值出现在2018年,为6.5×10⁸tC。2)森林碳储量在中南部的丘陵区域呈增加趋势,地势较低的北部地区呈下降趋势。3)江西省森林面积呈下降趋势,而森林碳储量呈上升趋势,城市扩张及该地区持续开展森林可持续经营是形成该趋势的主要原因。4)生态保护修复措施是促进江西省森林碳储量稳定增加的主要因素之一。未来应充分开发丰富的森林资源,通过开发国家核证自愿减排量(CCER)林业碳汇项目的方式促进环境保护与经济发展、消除贫困的协同增效。

关键词: 森林碳储量, 江西省, 时空特征, MK检验, 森林经营

Abstract:

Forest ecosystems play a key role in mitigating and adapting to climate change.A comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal trends in forest carbon stocks is essential for maintaining the regional carbon balance,predicting the potential of forest carbon stocks,adjusting conservation and management measures.Based on the three remote sensing datasets,forest carbon stock(FCS),land use cover change(LUCC)and digital elevation model(DEM),Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of forest carbon stock and its response to land use change in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2020.The results showed that 1)forest carbon stock in Jiangxi Province showed an upward fluctuating trend,with an average annual growth rate of 12.59%,the minimum value appeared in 2009,which was 5.3×10⁸tC,and the maximum value appeared in 2018,which was 6.5×10⁸tC.2)The carbon stock is increasing in hilly areas in the central and southern parts,while it is decreasing in the lower-altitude northern parts.3)Jiangxi Province shows a decreasing trend in forest area but an increasing trend in forest carbon stocks,mainly due to urban expansion and continued sustainable forest management.4)Ecological protection and restoration measure is one of the main factors that promoting the stable increase of forest carbon stock in Jiangxi Province.In the future,the rich forest resources should be fully developed,and the synergistic efficiency of environmental protection,economic development,and poverty alleviation should be promoted through the development of Chinese Certified Emission Reduction(CCER) forestry carbon sink projects.

Key words: forestry carbon stock, Jiangxi Province, spatiotemporal characteristics, Mann-Kendall test, forest management

中图分类号:

S718.55

李郊, 王冰, 王晨, 高鹤, 吴辉龙, 郑鑫, 彭华福. 2005—2020年江西省森林碳储量时空变化趋势及影响因素[J]. 林草资源研究, 2024,(1): 17-24.

LI Jiao, WANG Bing, WANG Chen, GAO He, WU Huilong, ZHENG Xin, PENG Huafu. Spatiotemporal Trends and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Stock in Jiangxi Province from 2005 to 2020[J]. Forest and Grassland Resources Research, 2024,(1): 17-24.

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数据类别	年份	数据分辨率/(km×km)	数据来源
森林碳储量(FCS)	2002—2021	1×1	[24]
土地利用覆盖变化(LUCC)	1980—2020	1×1	[25]
数字高程模型(DEM)	2022	1×1	[26]

Z值	变化趋势	占比/%
(-∞,-2.58]	极显著减少	1.38
(-2.58,-1.96]	显著减少	1.87
(-1.96,0]	不显著减少	19.48
(0,1.96]	不显著增加	47.56
(1.96,2.58]	显著增加	14.82
(2.58,+∞)	极显著增加	14.88

类别	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年
田地	45 171	45 023	44 594	44 090
林地	103 756	103 913	103 139	102 206
草地	7 084	6 890	7 231	7 165
水体	6 996	6 946	7 007	7 214
建设用地	3 250	3 419	4 245	5 425
裸地	629	695	670	535