关键词: 森林碳汇, 需求潜力, 云模型, 预测, 仿真

Abstract:

The article takes 7 pilot cities and provinces in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Hubei,Chongqing,Guangdong,Shenzhen as the case area,and uses the directional distance function to obtain the carbon marginal abatement cost of the industrial sector in each case area,and adopts the cloud model.The simulation method will make a scientific prediction on the forest carbon sequestration demand potential of the pilot provinces and cities in the next 10 years,and then carry out policy simulation research on how to improve the forest carbon sequestration demand of the pilot provinces and cities in the next 10 years.The results show that there are great differences in the carbon marginal abatement costs of the industrial industries in the seven pilot provinces and cities in China,such as the enterprise's super-discharge penalty rate,industrial incentive policies,self-technology emission reduction subsidies,and the intensity of corporate carbon emission quotas.The four policy factors have different effects on the demand potential of forest carbon sequestration in the emission reduction industry.Based on the combined impact calculation and analysis of different policy factors,the article concludes with relevant policy recommendations on how to improve the total demand for forest carbon sequestrations in the next seven pilot provinces and cities.

Key words: forest carbon sequestration, demand potential, cloud model, prediction, simulation