Temporal-spatial Dynamic Change Characteristics of Vegetation Coverage in Arid Regions of Northwest China

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2017.01.020

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the MODIS NDVI data of the normalized difference vegetation index products obtained between 2000 and 2015,Variable coefficient,Theil-Sen median trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test method and Hurst index method were utilized for research on the temporal-spatial dynamic change characteristics of vegetation coverage in the arid region of Northwest China and the future trends. The results showed:1)the vegetation coverage in the entire region has a strong spatial heterogeneity,the area of vegetation and bare fallow accounts for 35.59% and 64.41% of the total area,respectively. Affected by precipitation,higher value area of NDVI is mainly in the mountains and southeastern region which have a rich rainfall,the low value areas of NDVI are concentrated on plains and northwestern region which have a poor rainfall;Influenced by rivers and irrigation,the vegetation coverage of desert is lower than the oasis which has the better hydrothermal conditions. 2)the variation degree of the entire regional vegetation coverage in the recent 16 years was not obvious. The fluctuation in each subregion is slight,and the proportion of region where the variation degree is less than 0.10 is as high as 1/2. 3)the entire regional vegetation coverage in the recent 16 years shows fluctuation changes which have a increase trend,the change rate is 0.006/10a. The analysis based on the pixel scale also shows a increase trend,the area of increase trend in Hexi Corridor is the largest and in Northern Xinjiang is the least. 4)Hurst index average of the entire regional NDVI is 0.73. The scope of Hurst index greater than 0.5 accounts for 86.25%. The change trend of the entire regional vegetation coverage in the future is mainly in persistent increase. Among them,13.46% area change trend cannot be determined. The change trend in the future of the increase degree in each subregion is different,the increase trend in Hexi Corridor is the most obvious and in Northern Xinjiang is the least.

Key words: MODIS, normalized difference vegetation index, the arid region of Northwest China, trend analysis, precipitation

CLC Number:

S718.45

ZHAO Jing, ZHOU Yaozhi, DENG Xingyao. Temporal-spatial Dynamic Change Characteristics of Vegetation Coverage in Arid Regions of Northwest China[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2017, (1): 118-126.

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NDVI	占总面积百分比/%	北疆/%	天山/%	南疆/%	祁连山/%	河西走廊/%	内蒙西部/%
<0.1	64.41	22.18	20.76	83.52	23.69	71.86	79.74
0.1≤NDVI<0.2	20.46	44.82	28.91	10.80	37.17	20.75	19.29
0.2≤NDVI<0.3	6.20	14.63	17.46	2.52	15.88	3.55	0.59
0.3≤NDVI<0.4	4.98	12.76	13.37	1.97	11.19	2.91	0.20
0.4≤NDVI<0.5	3.05	5.17	12.40	1.14	9.88	0.93	0.14
≥0.5	0.90	0.44	7.10	0.04	2.19	0.00	0.04

CV_NDVI	变异程度	占总面积百分比	北疆	天山	南疆	祁连山	河西走廊	内蒙西部
CV_NDVI≤0.05	低波动变化	28.83	6.99	10.62	34.97	11.90	25.82	55.71
0.05<CV_NDVI≤0.10	相对较低的波动变化	43.18	48.28	47.19	41.28	46.31	49.18	35.06
0.10<CV_NDVI≤0.15	中等波动变化	17.47	28.62	27.16	13.44	31.07	17.59	7.87
0.15<CV_NDVI≤0.20	相对较高的波动变化	5.38	9.51	7.48	4.66	6.73	4.81	0.92
CV_NDVI>0.20	高波动变化	5.13	6.60	7.55	5.65	3.99	2.60	0.44

β	\|Z_c\|	NDVI变化趋势	占总面积百分比	北疆	天山	南疆	祁连山	河西走廊	内蒙西部
β<0	\|Z_c\|>1.96	显著减小	2.34	3.43	5.23	1.56	0.32	0.91	3.47
β<0	\|Z_c\|≤1.96	轻微减小	17.19	40.66	33.60	10.41	6.24	5.42	12.87
β>0	\|Z_c\|≤1.96	轻微增加	61.25	44.97	54.68	66.95	66.40	59.72	63.49
β>0	\|Z_c\|>1.96	显著增加	19.22	10.94	6.49	21.08	27.03	33.96	20.17

β	\|Z_c\|	H	NDVI预测的类型	占总面积百分比	北疆	天山	南疆	祁连山	河西走廊	内蒙西部
β<0	\|Z_c\|>1.96	>0.5	持续性显著减小	2.29	3.37	5.14	1.53	0.31	0.89	3.32
β<0	\|Z_c\|≤1.96	>0.5	持续性轻微减小	12.65	30.34	24.66	7.36	3.76	4.45	10.21
β>0	\|Z_c\|≤1.96	>0.5	持续性轻微增加	52.49	32.79	40.11	58.80	54.89	56.16	58.72
β>0	\|Z_c\|>1.96	>0.5	持续性显著增加	19.10	10.81	6.20	20.98	26.78	33.93	20.13
—	—	<0.5	无法确定	13.46	22.69	23.89	11.33	14.27	4.57	7.61