Abstract:

A logistic regression model was used to predicte Daxing'an Mountain's forest fire based on the climate,vegetation,terrain,socio-economic and infrastructure factors combing satellite fire point dataset from 2000 to 2010,the fire risk division was generated accordingly.In addition,an analysis of efficiency of fire ignition monitoring and suppression was also conducted based on fire risk division.The results showed that thirteen factors including slope,monthly average precipitation,monthly average temperature etc.,are significantly correlated with forest fires.High fire risk zone accounts for 24.47% of Daxing'an Mountains.Compared to current allocation of fire monitoring,the gridding methods on location selection of fire tower (20 km×20 km grid and 10 km×10 km grid) can significantly improve the efficiency of fire monitoring.The visible rates on the high fire risk zone improved 36.97% and 60.52% respectively and the required number of fire towers reduced meanwhile.On the other hand,the accessibilities of fire suppression to high fire risk zone are higher in East,South and West of Daxing'an Mountains than the central and Northern areas, however,only one third forest fire station in the region can send fire fighters to high fire risk areas in a short time.We therefore suggest that more fire stations need to be added in the poor accessibility area in order to improve the efficiency of forest fire suppression of Daxing'an Mountains.

Key words: Logistic regression, fire risk division, forest fire monitoring, visibility analysis, accessibility analysis