Study on the Characteristics of Forest Fires in China and Their Relationship with Major Climatic Factors

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2019.02.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the fire data and CRU grid meteorological data,the time characteristics,Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression analysis are used to comprehensively analyze the time characteristics of the 1950-2017 forest fires and their climate driving factors.A fire casualty prediction model is established.The results showed that there was a significant positive correlation among the number of forest fires,the area of forest damage,injury,death and casualties,with similar changes or linear trends.Since 1950,the number of forest fires,forest area and casualties in the country have shown a significant downward trend;After 1988,the fires are relatively small,which may be related to the fire cycle,global climate change and the national fire prevention after the “5-6” devastating fire.Policy changes are closely related.The number of forest fires in China during the period from 1950 to 1987 was positively correlated with the precipitation in the growing season,and the precipitation in the non-growth season was negatively correlated.After 1988,except for the precipitation in May and September,the occurrence of forest fires was basically negatively correlated with the precipitation.The number of forest fires in the country between 1950 and 1987 was positively correlated with the temperature at the end of the growing season.After 1988,the number of forest fires was negatively correlated with the average temperature,high temperature and low temperature of the previous year and the growing season or growing season.The reduction in combustibles caused by the negative effects can be the reason for explaining the negative correlation between temperature and the number of forest fires.The number of forest fires in the country between 1950 and 1987 was positively correlated with PDSI in the previous year and reached significant levels in June,September,November and December.After 1988,the number of forest fires was negatively correlated with monthly PDSI.In the context of climate warming,the trade-off between the amount of combustibles and the moisture content is the key to the occurrence of a forest fire.The change in fire prevention policies and the “warm-dry” phenomenon triggered by high temperatures may change or challenge traditional fire-climate laws.With the duality of the impact of fires on the forest,while at the same time of fire prevention,we must increase the study of forest fires,and scientifically and rationally manage forest fires.

Key words: forest fire, climate factor, scientific prevention and control, economic loss

CLC Number:

S762.2

DU Jianhua, GONG Yinting, JIANG Liwei. Study on the Characteristics of Forest Fires in China and Their Relationship with Major Climatic Factors[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2019, (2): 7-14.

Figures/Tables 8

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参数	森林火灾次数	受灾森林面积	受伤人数	死亡人数	伤亡人数
森林火灾次数	1
受灾森林面积	0.705^**	1
受伤人数	0.494^**	0.625^**	1
死亡人数	0.744^**	0.672^**	0.561^**	1
伤亡人数	0.543^**	0.657^**	0.996^**	0.633^**	1

时间	年均森林火灾次数/次	年均受灾森林面积/hm²	年均受伤/人	年均死亡/人	年均人员伤亡/人
1950—1987	15932.47	947238.24	677.76	109.95	787.70
1988—2017	6974.03	71438.00	105.60	50.70	156.30
1950—2017	11980.22	560855.78	421.57	83.42	504.99

参数		P5			P8	P9	T3			T6	T7	T8	T9
受伤人数	T	-0.37^*	-0.61^**	-0.52^**	-0.41^*	-0.26	-0.55^**	-0.36	-0.45^*	-0.60^**	-0.55^**	-0.66^**	-0.42^*
	Tmin	-0.45^*	-0.63^**	-0.48^**	-0.37^*	-0.29	-0.51^**	-0.44^*	-0.46^*	-0.69^**	-0.57^**	-0.63^**	-0.39^*
	Tmax	-0.27	-0.55^**	-0.49^**	-0.42^*	-0.22	-0.57^**	-0.27	-0.41^*	-0.47^*	-0.47^**	-0.64^**	-0.42^*
死亡人数	T	0.14	0.08	-0.03	0.12	0.38^*	-0.05	0.10	-0.04	0.12	0.14	-0.66^**	-0.42^*
	Tmin	0.18	0.01	0.04	0.22	0.38^*	-0.09	0.04	0.06	0.09	0.20	-0.63^**	-0.39^*
	Tmax	0.09	0.15	-0.09	0.03	0.35	-0.02	0.15	-0.14	0.14	0.06	-0.64^**	-0.42^*
伤亡人数	T	-0.30	-0.53^**	-0.48^**	-0.34	-0.13	-0.51^**	-0.29	-0.42^*	-0.51^**	-0.46^*	-0.66^**	-0.28
	Tmin	-0.35	-0.56^**	-.43^*	-0.27	-0.15	-0.49^**	-0.39^*	-0.40^*	-0.60^**	-0.45^*	-0.61^**	-0.26
	Tmax	-0.22	-0.46^*	-0.47^**	-0.37^*	-0.10	-0.52^**	-0.20	-0.41^*	-0.38^*	-0.41^*	-0.65^**	-0.28