The Prediction of Suitable Areas of Four Species Including Populuseuphratica in Xinjiang

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2020.01.006

Abstract

Abstract:

According to the meteorological data of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the known species distribution of Populuseuphratica, Halimodendronhalodendron, Lyciumruthenicum,and Glycyrrhizauralensis,the combination of Arcgis and MaxEnt model was used to carry out the growth of Populuseuphratica and other three plants predictionsin Xinjiang.The results showed that the suitablearea of Populuseuphratica, Halimodendronhalodendron, Lyciumruthenicum and Glycyrrhizauralensis accounted for 40.79%,38.54%,41.99% and 30.55% of the total area of Xinjiang,respectively.The two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to Populuseuphratica distribution are average relative humidity and average day and night temperature difference;the two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to the distribution of Halimodendronhalodendron and Lyciumruthenicum are the isothermal and the coldest month.The two meteorological factors with the highest contribution rate to Glycyrrhizauralensis distribution prediction are isothermal and annual average day and night temperature difference.The ROC curve is verified to show that the prediction result is accurate.Combined with the analysis results of the contribution rate of each factor by jackknife method,it is concluded that the meteorological conditions suitable for 4 plants are:average humidity above 60%,annual average day and night temperature difference below 25.5 °C or 27.25~27.5 °C,the isothermality is between 36 and 36.5,and the lowest temperature of the coldest month is greater than-20 °C.

Key words: Populus euphratica, Halimodendron halodendron, Lycium ruthenicum, Glycyrrhiza uralensis, MaxEnt model, suitable area, forest ecology

CLC Number:

S718.5

SHI Haobo, LI Lu, LU Haiyan, SUN Guili, WANG Guihua. The Prediction of Suitable Areas of Four Species Including Populuseuphratica in Xinjiang[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2020, (1): 38-46.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Tab.1

Fig.4

Fig.5

Fig.6

Fig.7

References 16

[1]	任海, 王俊, 陆宏芳 . 恢复生态学的理论与研究进展[J]. 生态学报, 2014,34(15):4117-4124. doi: 10.5846/stxb201305301238
[2]	魏远, 顾红波, 薛亮 , 等. 矿山废弃地土地复垦与生态恢复研究进展[J]. 中国水土保持科学, 2012,10(2):107-114.
[3]	于立忠, 刘利芳, 王绪高 , 等. 东北次生林生态系统保护与恢复技术探讨[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017,36(11):3243-3248.
[4]	陈志坚 . 生态林建设模式与措施思考[J]. 现代园艺, 2016(12):169-170.
[5]	王雅梅, 张青青, 徐海量 , 等. 生态输水前后台特玛湖植物多样性变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019,36(5):1186-1193.
[6]	叶勇, 翁劲, 卢昌义 , 等. 红树林生物多样性恢复[J]. 生态学报, 2006(4):1243-1250.
[7]	熊黑钢 , 塔西甫拉提·特依拜,龙桃.新疆策勒绿洲荒漠过渡带自然状态下植物恢复与生境[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2010,24(10):138-143.
[8]	邢丁亮, 郝占庆 . 最大熵原理及其在生态学研究中的应用[J]. 生物多样性, 2011,19(3):295-302. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2011.08318
[9]	张路 . MAXENT最大熵模型在预测物种潜在分布范围方面的应用[J]. 生物学通报, 2015,50(11):9-12.
[10]	张琴, 张东方, 吴明丽 , 等. 基于生态位模型预测天麻全球潜在适生区[J]. 植物生态学报, 2017,41(7):770-778. doi: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0380
[11]	李璇, 李垚, 方炎明 . 基于优化的Maxent模型预测白栎在中国的潜在分布区[J]. 林业科学, 2018,54(8):153-164.
[12]	Hanley J A, McNeil B J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve[J]. Ragiology, 1982,143(1):29-36.
[13]	胡秀, 吴福川, 郭微 , 等. 基于MaxEnt生态学模型的檀香在中国的潜在种植区预测[J]. 林业科学, 2014,50(5):27-33. doi: 10.11707/j.1001-7488.20140504
[14]	王雨生, 王召海, 邢汉发 , 等. 基于MaxEnt模型的珙桐在中国潜在适生区预测[J]. 生态学杂志, 2019,38(4):1230-1237.
[15]	杜超群, 袁慧, 单华平 , 等. 湖北省日本落叶松栽培区划[J]. 森林与环境学报, 2019,39(3):273-279.
[16]	黎磊, 陈家宽 . 气候变化对野生植物的影响及保护对策[J]. 生物多样性, 2014,22(5):549-563. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.14124

物种名	气候变量	置换重要值	累计贡献率
胡杨 (Populus euphratica)	平均相对湿度	0.1	26.8
胡杨 (Populus euphratica)	年均昼夜温差	42.6	21.5
铃铛刺 (Halimodendron halodendron)	等温性	50.5	37.2
铃铛刺 (Halimodendron halodendron)	最冷月最低温	25.3	34.2
黑果枸杞 (Lycium ruthenicum)	等温性	22.5	37.1
黑果枸杞 (Lycium ruthenicum)	最冷月最低温	26.5	21.9
甘草 (Glycyrrhiza uralensis)	等温性	2.1	43.2
甘草 (Glycyrrhiza uralensis)	年均昼夜温差	31.3	18.8