A Study on the Basal Area Growth Model of Phoebe zhennan Secondary Forest in Hunan Province

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2020.02.014

Abstract

Abstract:

Establishing basal area growth model of Phoebe zhennan secondary forest in Hunan province to provide theoretical basis and scientific guidance for its growth prediction and management decision-making.Taking Phoebe zhennan secondary forest in the National Forest Inventory sample of Hunan province from 1989 to 2014 as the object,the basic model of basal area growth was constructed based on 5 theoretical models with biological significance.On this basis,the site index closely related to stand growth is added to construct the site index model.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the model,the mixed effect model of the growth of Phoebe zhennan secondary forest in Hunan area is constructed by adding the random parameters including stand density.The Logistic growth model with the highest coefficient (R²=0.241 0) and prediction accuracy (P=98.821 3%) and the smallest sum of residual squares (SSE=2 986.149 2) was selected as the basic model;the site index was added to parameter b₁,and the site index model of Hunan Phoebe zhennan secondary forest was constructed,the coefficient of determination was increased to 0.3312.The mixed effect model was constructed by dividing the stand density into different grades,the results showed that the AIC and BIC values of the simulation with random parameters added to parameter b₄were the lowest,and the fitting effect was significantly better than other simulation (p< 0.000 1);compared with the basic model,the ME,MAE,RME and RMAE values of the mixed effect model were significantly reduced,and the R² was increased to 0.946 2,and the prediction accuracy was improved.The mixed effect model can improve the prediction accuracy of stand area growth,eliminate the differences between different density grades,and provide scientific basis for the reasonable management of Phoebe zhennan secondary forest in Hunan province.

Key words: Phoebe zhennan, basal area, secondary forest, growth, mixed effected model

CLC Number:

S758.5

GONG Zhaosong, ZENG Siqi, HE Dongbei, LONG Shisheng, JIANG Xingyan. A Study on the Basal Area Growth Model of Phoebe zhennan Secondary Forest in Hunan Province[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2020, (2): 87-93.

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References 18

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林分因子	建模数据					检验数据
林分因子	样本量	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准差	样本量	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准差
年龄(A)/a	134	12	48	27	5.7651	67	14	53	28	8.0098
直径(D)/cm	134	7.0	18.6	9.8	1.9210	67	7.2	18.9	9.5	1.7240
断面积(G)/(m²/hm²)	134	2.3533	30.2128	12.0496	5.4185	67	2.8490	25.5542	12.2977	5.3998
蓄积量(M)/(m³/hm²)	134	12	48	27	5.7651	67	14	53	28	8.0098

序号	模型名称	方程	表达式
1	理查德Richards	y=a $(1 - e - b · x) c$	G=b₁ $(1 - e - b 2 · A) b 3$
2	考尔夫 Korf	y=a· $e - b · x - c$	G=b₁· $e - b 2 · A - b 3$
3	舒马赫 Schumacher	y=a· $e - b x$	G=b₁· $e - b 2 A$
4	逻辑斯蒂 Logistic	y= $a 1 + b · e - c · x$	G= $b 1 1 + b 2 · e - b 3 · A$
5	坎派兹Compertz	y=a· $e - b · e - c · x$	G=b₁· $e - b 2 · e - b 3 · A$

密度等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ
密度范围/(株/hm²)	600~899	900~1199	1200~1499
密度等级	Ⅳ	Ⅳ	Ⅵ
密度范围/(株/hm²)	1500~1799	1800~2099	>2100

模型	参数			检验指标
模型	b₁	b₂	b₃	确定系数R²	残差平方和SSE	预估精度P/%
1	54.6503	0.0094	1.0139	0.2363	3005.6971	97.8847
2	6.1247	-0.0174	-1.2386	0.2409	2987.9305	98.4475
3	29.6910	23.9502		0.2251	3047.5358	97.5123
4	141.7949	27.6078	0.0335	0.2410	2986.1492	98.8213
5	70.8324	2.9249	0.0181	0.2394	2992.6624	98.1476

模型	参数					检验指标
模型	b₁	b₂	b₃	b₄		确定系数R²	残差平方和SSE		预估精度P/%
(13)式	-25.3829	37.0466	0.0359	15.5279	0.3312			2631.7412		98.8847
(14)式	158.7586	76.7229	0.0369	-3.2384	0.3310			2632.7543		98.8438