Research on Coordinated Development of Carbon Market, Economic Growth and Environmental Protection in China's Carbon Trading Pilot Areas

doi:10.13466/j.cnki.lyzygl.2021.04.005

Abstract

Abstract:

The coordinated development of carbon market,economic growth,and environmental protection is the fundamental safeguard to reach the goal of “carbon neutral 2060”.Based on the relevant data of China's seven carbon trading pilot areas from 2014 to 2019,this paper first developed the coordinated development degree index system of regional carbon market,economic growth and environmental protection,measured the coordinated development level,and finally,it used Tobit model to analyze the influences of industry firm number above regional scale,fixed asset investment,foreign direct investment and R&D investment on the coordinated development level.The results showed that:the coordinated development degrees of carbon market,economic growth and environmental protection in the pilot areas of carbon trading were on the rise,and Beijing and Guangdong were in good coordination,Tianjin,Shanghai,Shenzhen and Hubei were in intermediate coordination,and Chongqing was in primary coordination;There were significant differences in the positive and negative effects and levels of the industry firm number above regional scale,fixed asset investment,foreign direct investment and R&D investment on the coordinated development of carbon trading pilot areas.This paper provided decision reference for the unifying construction of national carbon markets,regional green economy development and the realization of carbon neutral goal.

Key words: carbon market, economic growth, environmental protection, coordinated development, Tobit model

CLC Number:

F206

LI Kunyang, GU Guangtong. Research on Coordinated Development of Carbon Market, Economic Growth and Environmental Protection in China's Carbon Trading Pilot Areas[J]. FOREST RESOURCES WANAGEMENT, 2021, (4): 29-37.

Figures/Tables 6

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标			指标方向		指标权重(%)
一级指标	二级指标	三级指标			指标方向		北京		天津		上海	广东		深圳		重庆		湖北
碳市场	市场规模	交易量(万t)	+	14.06		9.19		3.29		13.02			3.72		2.10		11.19
	市场规模	交易额(百万元)	+	3.86		2.84		9.17		4.26			9.01		12.27		1.35
	市场活跃度	最大日交易量(万t)	+	16.29		9.61		7.99		10.38			1.48		2.43		2.08
		平均日交易量(百t)	+	15.47		5.36		6.04		12.93			4.19		2.11		6.81
		有效交易日比率(%)	+	5.11		8.15		5.60		12.14			12.61		14.96		24.74
	市场波动性	收盘差价(元)	-	10.66		21.59		14.17		21.08			17.96		16.75		20.35
		碳价格幅度(%)	-	21.59		33.99		34.42		15.89			34.57		19.24		6.18
		交易量分散度(%)	-	12.96		9.27		19.31		10.30			16.46		30.14		27.29
经济增长	经济规模	人均GDP(万元)	+	16.29		17.07		16.40		16.56			16.59		16.51		16.44
		人均可支配收入(万元)	+	16.50		16.72		16.33		16.52			16.53		16.49		16.63
		社会消费品零售总额(万元)	+	16.74		16.82		16.61		16.65			16.26		16.80		16.73
	经济增长潜力	第三产业占GDP比重(%)	+	16.78		16.77		16.92		16.73			16.81		16.65		17.00
		地方财政预算收入(万元)	+	16.88		15.78		17.01		16.90			16.87		16.57		16.13
		GDP增长率(%)	+	16.82		16.83		16.73		16.63			16.94		16.98		17.08
环境保护	环境污染	能源消费量(万t)	-	16.57		16.94		17.19		17.15			16.70		16.61		17.20
		工业SO₂排放量(万t)	-	16.52		17.22		17.43		17.18			16.26		16.43		17.00
		工业烟尘排放量(万t)	-	16.42		17.30		17.21		17.62			17.02		16.43		17.16
	环境治理	森林覆盖率(%)	+	16.89		16.74		16.73		16.96			16.20		16.88		17.26
		环境保护财政支出(亿元)	+	16.68		14.40		14.51		14.50			16.71		16.69		14.49
		建成区绿化覆盖率(%)	+	16.91		17.39		16.93		16.58			17.12		16.97		16.89

特征值及其累计贡献率		北京	天津	上海	广东	深圳	重庆	湖北
特征值	经济增长	14.78	9.55	13.27	16.42	11.88	12.90	13.81
	环境保护	2.04	4.00	3.87	2.60	5.30	4.10	3.89
	碳市场	1.76	3.27	1.32	0.51	1.44	1.17	1.25
累计贡献率(%)		92.88	84.12	92.25	97.65	93.11	90.85	94.78
权重(%)	经济增长	79.57	56.75	71.91	84.07	63.80	71.00	72.85
	环境保护	10.96	23.79	20.96	13.32	28.48	22.58	20.55
	碳市场	9.47	19.46	7.13	2.62	7.72	6.42	6.60

年份/地区	北京	天津	上海	广东	深圳	重庆	湖北	时期均值
2014	0.47	0.62	0.47	0.46	0.53	0.45	0.51	0.50
2015	0.61	0.70	0.54	0.63	0.64	0.54	0.63	0.61
2016	0.69	0.72	0.65	0.71	0.68	0.58	0.70	0.68
2017	0.78	0.71	0.73	0.81	0.71	0.61	0.78	0.73
2018	0.84	0.75	0.77	0.87	0.73	0.63	0.84	0.78
2019	0.88	0.77	0.81	0.92	0.73	0.72	0.76	0.80
标准差	0.15	0.05	0.14	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.12	0.11
2017—2019地区均值	0.83	0.74	0.77	0.87	0.72	0.65	0.79

协调发展度	0~0.09	0.10~0.19	0.20~0.29	0.30~0.39	0.40~0.49
协调发展等级	极度失调	严重失调	中度失调	轻度失调	濒临失调
协调发展度	0.50~0.59	0.60~0.69	0.70~0.79	0.80~0.89	0.90~1.00
协调发展等级	勉强协调	初级协调	中级协调	良好协调	优质协调

因素	北京	天津	上海	广东	深圳	重庆	湖北
规模以上工业企业数量	-1.2073^** (-5.24)	-0.1339^* (-3.55)	-0.6658^*** (-9.72)	-0.4194^** (-6.27)	-2.5068^* (-4.19)	1.3737 (2.15)	-0.5337 (-1.81)
固定资产投入	1.2297^* (3.36)	0.7619^*** (12.90)	-0.7912 (-2.51)	-0.0156 (-0.07)	0.5479 (2.52)	0.6722 (2.01)	-2.8358 (-2.76)
外商直接投资	-0.1526 (-2.40)	0.05233^** (7.54)	-0.3294^** (-4.84)	-4.1301^** (-3.61)	-8.0423^* (-3.30)	-1.9732^* (-3.80)	3.0762^* (4.22)
科技投入	0.5689^* (4.25)	0.2354^** (4.74)	0.7650^** (5.19)	1.0339^** (4.50)	5.3753^* (3.01)	-14.6190 (-1.88)	0.2391 (0.72)
常数项	-1.3807 (-0.30)	-7.0511^** (-9.16)	12.9777^** (4.98)	0.3436 (2.60)	100.2667^* (3.41)	-10.0456 (-1.88)	-8.4642 (-2.79)
P值	0.0000	0.0001	0.0000	0.0000	0.0047	0.0111	0.0011
对数似然值	18.1409	21.8042	25.7743	22.5899	14.7721	12.9833	14.0545