Abstract:

In order to prevent the further spread of Dendroctonus micans in Tibet,research was carried out to predict potential distribution of Dendroctonus micans in Tibet using the Maxent model as prediction model,and temperature and precipitation as environment variables,the prediction results are verified by the ROC curve.The results show that the potential distribution area of Dendroctonus micans is about 1/6 of the Tibet's total area,and distributed in southeastern and central Tibet,this result is basically consistent with the distribution of the host.The ROC curve test indicated that the prediction with Maxent model had a higher precision(AUC=0.97),and was credible.These provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control Dendroctonus micans and some effective measures must be taken to prevent its spread for the further.

Key words: Dendroctonus micans, distribution, model, environmental factor, Tibet