Abstract:

In this paper,the logistic regression model was applied to analyze the influencing factors affecting the willingness of fallow farmers to resume farming based on 1 638 valid questionnaires collected from the field research.The results showed that the factors affecting the willingness of farmers to return to farming in the two rounds were different;the willingness of farmers to return to farming in the previous round was influenced by the condition of the fallow land,such as the fallow forest species,the preservation rate of fallow forest land and the income of fallow land and the willingness of farmers to return to farming in the new round was significantly influenced by the fallow subsidy standard.There were significant differences in the willingness of different groups of fallow farmers to return to farming,such as the willingness of ethnic groups and low-income households to return to farming.The willingness of farmers to return to farming is different in different terrains and regions.For example,farmers in hilly and mountainous areas in the previous round are more willing to return to farming,while farmers in the northwest of the new round are more willing to return to farming.In order to effectively consolidate the results of fallow forests and prevent the phenomenon of replanting,more flexible support policies should be formulated,the quality of fallow forests should be improved and the economic potential of fallow forests should be explored.It also found that the social evaluation and farmers' recognition of the project should be improved by strengthening publicity.

Key words: cropland to forest program, reconversion willingness, impact factor, characteristics of fallow land, project evaluation