Abstract:

An improved understanding of the factors affecting the optimal rotation period and the maximum land expected value of Larix principis-rupprechtii is essential under climate change scenarios and can help managers adopt adaptive forest management strategies in considering both carbon sequestration and timber production.In the current study,inventory data of 108 sample plots collected from the 6th to 8th National Forest Inventories were used to develop Faustmann models for larch plantations in northern China.The effects of timber price,carbon price,and discount rate on optimal rotation period and land expected value were then analyzed based on the resulting Faustmann model.The results showed that:1)the optimal rotation period was 27 years for larch plantations under the baseline scenario.Both the optimal rotation period and land expected value decreased with increasing carbon emission concentration;2)timber price fluctuations didn’t change the optimal rotation period.The increase in carbon price can prolong the optimal rotation period.Specifically,for every 100-yuan increase in carbon sink per ton,the optimal rotation period will be extended by one year;3)the optimal rotation period and land income decreased with increasing discount rate.In the context of global climate change,it is necessary to develop optimal rotation models that consider climate factors for plantations,thereby reducing the uncertainty in future decision-making of carbon sink management.

Key words: Larix principis-rupprechtii, climate change, optimal rotation period, forestry carbon sink