Abstract:

Based on the forestry statistical data of Fujian Province in 2005—2015,the gray correlation analysis method was used to calculate the correlation degree of three forestry output values and the total forestry output value in Fujian Province,and then the current situation and dynamic changes of the Fujian forestry industrial structure were analyzed.The prediction model of GM(1,1) grey was established to forecast and analyse the changes of Fujian Province three forestry output values and the total forestry output value.The results show that the grey correlation degrees of Fujian Province three forestry output values and the total forestry output value in 2005—2015 were 0.8564,0.9415,0.7654,respectively.And a forestry industrial structure pattern would be formed in which the second industry is the leading factor,followed by the first and third industries.In the next ten years,with the rapid improvement and development of living standards and the third industry,the value will be more than the first industry,forming a new pattern of “two,three and one” industrial structure with the second industry as the leading one and the first and third industries developing steadily.

Key words: Fujian Province, forestry industry, grey correlation, GM(1,1)model, industrial structure