Abstract:

Forest pests are a major factor threatening the ecological health of forests and causing economic losses in forests.It is of great significance to study the changes of their distribution and their development trends given climate change.The paper takes monochamus alternatus as the research object,and conducts the distribution simulation of its suitable habitat area under the climate warming trend.Based on the average monthly temperature from June to August from 2006 to 2015 as the predictive index,the distribution of suitable habitats of monochamus alternatus in different temperature was simulated and predicted on the spatial scale of 1km×1km.The results show that:(1) At present,monochamus alternatus in China is mainly distributed in provinces like Shandong,Henan,Anhui,Guangxi and Guizhou,and provinces such as Tibet,Qinghai and Sichuan see less distributtion;(2)As the temperature increases,the suitable distribution of monochamus alternatus gradually moves to the north,and the probability of its suitable distribution in Tibet,Qinghai and other areas with less distribution gradually increases.The spatial distribution prediction of monochamus alternatus based on GIS provides a scientific basis for the prevention of bursaphelenchus xylophilus disease in the context of global warming,and provides a theoretical basis for the prediction of pests control in China.

Key words: Monochamus alternatus, suitable distribution, simulation prediction, temperature increase, mapping forecast